Weather Talk: Summer drought more likely than spring flood this year
There continues to be only a low risk of spring snowmelt flooding this year.
Not only does the snowpack contain well below average moisture across the Red River Basin, but soil moisture conditions are considerably drier than average. Rainfall last year, April through November, was anywhere from 2 to 7 inches lower than average.
The one element that could present a problem is that the frost depth is substantial.
One week ago the frost depth in Fargo was measured at 39 inches. This is largely due to the light covering of snow this winter.
In the unlikely event of a very heavy rainfall, the frozen ground could cause a rapid runoff. However, it would take an incredibly rare and heavy rainfall for flooding to become serious.
The concern of a spring and summer drought is probably more realistic. However, a summer drought is much more closely defined by summer rainfall than winter snow.